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Investors, after digesting last week's crucial inflation report, will turn their attention to a deluge of corporate earnings and fresh economic data that could solidify expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Here are the key events on this week's radar:
Earnings Extravaganza
It's earnings palooza as some of the biggest names across multiple sectors unleash their quarterly report cards. The highlights include:
Netflix (NFLX) on Thursday, kicking off results for Big Tech amid the raging AI stock frenzy. Chipmakers ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) also report mid-week.
The major U.S. banks wrap up with Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Bank of America (BAC) among others.
Other marquee names include Dow components Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), UnitedHealth (UNH), American Express (AXP), and Travelers (TRV).
Investors will scrutinize the reports for any impact from rising costs, economic cooling, and the AI boom reshaping industries.
Consumer Checkpoint
After a surprise spending slowdown in May, Tuesday's retail sales data for June will provide an important update on the American consumer's health. Economists expect a 0.4% drop, though underlying control sales may still show resilience.
The retail figures, along with the weekly jobless claims, carry added significance as the Fed weighs whether to pause or cut rates next.
September Pivot?
Speaking of the Fed, last week's cooler-than-expected inflation print of 3% cemented market expectations for rate cuts beginning in September. Investors now give it over 85% odds.
Fed Chair Powell gets two chances this month - the July 31st post-meeting press conference and the Jackson Hole symposium in late August - to validate those rate cut forecasts or pump the brakes.
With critics framing any easing as politically motivated ahead of the 2024 election, Powell's communications will be heavily scrutinized.
Political Backdrop
Domestic politics will hang over markets after the shocking attempted assassination of former President Trump at a rally over the weekend. While he survived, the violence stoked tensions ahead of this week's Republican National Convention where Trump is expected to be formally named the GOP's 2024 nominee.
The combination of corporate performance, economic data, Fed policy maneuvering and the white-hot political backdrop presents a potential powder keg for volatility across markets this week.
Economic Data Calendar:
Monday
• New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index
Tuesday
• Retail Sales
• Import/Export Prices
• NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment
Wednesday
• Housing Starts/Building Permits
• Industrial Production
• Fed's Beige Book
Thursday
• Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims
Friday
• No major economic reports
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